For example, in mountain areas, it’s much lower than on planes, so in the mountains, it’s useful for general understanding of weather conditions but don’t rely on it entirely. So it suits very well for any sport you can do on flat terrain like city biking, but also in the lake, sea or ocean: kite- and windsurfing, surfing, SUP.īut in different cases, the accuracy can vary. The accuracy of the 3 day weather forecast is about 90%. Of course, these are just mean values, and variability all over the world is very high. The weather conditions can be predicted with the highest accuracy in this case. And approximately 3 days is the period one particular cyclone or anticyclone influences one particular spot. Speaking about outdoors, this time period is long enough to plan some activities, but at the same time, it’s short enough to have high forecast accuracy.Īgain: why three days? That comes from synoptic meteorology: most cyclones and anticyclones live for about a week. 3 day weather forecastģ-day weather forecast is the second key type of forecast depending on duration, which is also very common.
Remember that heavy rain is the hardest event to predict. But you can trust it even in difficult conditions because most future changes in weather can be noticed at least 1 day before they happen. As you can see, even in this case it is not 100%, because to predict the weather with such a probability using even the most modern and powerful computers is still impossible. The forecast for 1 day has a success rate of about 96–98%. How accurate are weather forecasts with other durations? 1 day weather forecast It can be used for a general understanding of the situation: the temperature is rising, the wind is strengthening, and so on. Check also the latest forecasts for extreme weather, if such a weather is possible in your area. Going back to outdoors, the 10 day-forecast is equally suitable for any sport or activity. But you shouldn’t rely on it in particular values of temperature, wind speed, etc. Forecast for 10 days can be used for the understanding of the weather conditions, so it is better to double-check it comparing different sources (weather models). So it is about 70% compared to the 1-day forecast, which is the most accurate. How accurate is the forecast for 10 days? It is logical to assume that the longer the forecast period, the less accurate it is. This is where this number of the days comes from. But our methods of weather prediction are still imperfect, so the real limit is a bit lower and equals approximately 10 days. We can’t predict the weather correctly for more than 14 days. 14 days are called the “theoretical limit” of weather prediction. That means that no matter what’s happening with the weather now, in 14 days the current situation can change in any direction. But why exactly 10 days?įrom the physical laws that describe the atmosphere dynamics, meteorologists know that the atmosphere “forgets” its current state in 14 days. And it’s the longest forecast to have accuracy. This time period is long enough to plan outdoor activities even for the next weekend. Hence there is such a thing as the duration of the forecast.ġ0 day weather forecast is the key and therefore most common among the forecasts of different durations. In other words, the forecast has time limits. The problem is that the weather cannot be predicted far into the future. Then they put this data into supercomputers that use those physical laws to turn past and current weather conditions into the weather forecast. The most modern and accurate method to predict the weather is numeric modeling. There are well-known physical laws that together can describe how the air moves and how conditions in every spot change. To collect weather data meteorologists use various instruments but mostly special observation weather stations, which are located all over the world. Weather forecast is the prediction of weather conditions that will occur in the future. There are several methods to do this. You can also see forecasts for 3, 5, 7 and 14 days, and, of course, for today and tomorrow. But what does these numbers actually mean? Could we trust a forecast for more than two weeks or even a month? In this article, you will learn what the 10 day weather forecast is, why it is considered the main one, and about other forecast durations and their accuracy. 10 day weather forecast is the key and therefore most common among the forecasts of different durations.
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